张铄;朱文娟;林义棋

基金项目(Foundation): 福建省中青年教师教育科研项目“福建省数字经济与实体经济融合发展研究”（JAS24189）

摘要：

基于“中心—外围”理论，以福建省九地市2009—2023年面板数据为样本，运用耦合协调模型、社会网络分析与情景分析法，分析数字经济与实体经济融合的时空格局、网络结构及演化路径。福建省融合水平呈“中心—外围”式阶梯分异，区域差距持续扩大；福州、厦门、泉州形成“核心三角”，外围城市间横向联系薄弱，呈现结构依附；乐观情景下外围城市可凭借后发优势缩小差距，悲观情景下区域分化加剧。应强化“核心三角”辐射引领，完善传导机制；激活外围城市内生动力，构建多节点协同网络；完善跨区域协同机制，缩小政策要素落差，破解数字鸿沟，促进区域高质量协调发展。

Abstract：

Based on the core-periphery theory, this study uses panel data of nine cities in Fujian Province from 2009 to 2023 as samples, and employs the coupling coordination model, social network analysis, and scenario analysis to examine the spatiotemporal patterns, network structure, and evolutionary path of the integration of the digital economy and the real economy. The integration level in Fujian exhibits a stepwise core-periphery differentiation, with regional disparities continuing to widen. Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Quanzhou form a “core triangle”, while peripheral cities show weak horizontal linkages and structural dependence. Under the optimistic scenario, peripheral cities can narrow the gap by leveraging their late-mover advantages, whereas under the pessimistic scenario, regional polarization intensifies. Accordingly, it is necessary to strengthen the radiating role of the “core triangle” and improve the transmission mechanism; activate the endogenous momentum of peripheral cities and build a multi-node collaborative network; and improve cross-regional coordination mechanisms to reduce policy and factor allocation gaps, bridge the digital divide, and promote high-quality, coordinated regional development.