陈秀乾;黄庆安;初良勇

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金项目一般项目“重大突发事件下复杂海运供应链网络韧性影响机制及提升路径研究”（24BGL282）; 福建省社科基金青年项目“重大突发事件下福建出口海运供应链韧性测度及提升路径研究”（FJ2025C040）; 福建开放大学优秀中青年骨干教师项目“中美贸易战背景下福建出口海运供应链韧性评估与提升策略研究”（FK25YQ002）

摘要：

在全球供应链不确定性加剧背景下，聚焦福建出口海运供应链韧性，构建了“能力—主体”双维耦合评估框架。基于“抵抗—恢复—适应—转型”四大能力与“贸易市场—海运市场—港口基础设施”三大主体，设计含12项量化指标的评价体系，结合动态博弈赋权—灰色关联—TOPSIS模型，集成10类异构数据源，实证分析2018—2024年四次国际重大突发事件下福建出口海运供应链韧性动态变化情况，并通过fsQCA分析提升路径。结果显示，福建出口海运供应链综合韧性呈“波动调整”特征，不同事件下韧性能力与韧性主体表现各有优劣。存在2条提升路径，其中“适应+转型双驱动”路径最优。基于此，建议从政府“健全分类响应体系，搭建协同预警机制”、航运企业“增强动态适配能力，加速绿色转型升级”、港口企业“深化数字智能建设，推进多方协同运营”三方面提升福建出口海运供应链韧性。

Abstract：

Against the backdrop of growing uncertainty in global supply chains, this study focuses on the dynamic evolution of Fujian's export maritime supply chain resilience, and innovatively constructs a two-dimensional coupling evaluation framework of “Capability-Subject”. A resilience evaluation system with 12 quantitative indicators is established based on four core capabilities including resistance, recovery, adaptation and transformation, as well as three key subjects consisting of trade market, maritime transport market and port infrastructure. Combined with the dynamic game weighting-grey correlation-TOPSIS model, this paper integrates ten types of heterogeneous data sources to empirically analyze the dynamic resilience of Fujian's export maritime supply chain under four major international emergencies from 2018 to 2024, and explores resilience improvement paths via fsQCA. The results indicate that the comprehensive supply chain resilience presents a fluctuating adjustment trend. The four resilience capabilities and three main subjects show distinct advantages and disadvantages under different emergencies. The supply chain performs best in resistance and recovery during Sino-US trade friction, while achieves optimal adaptation, transformation capacity and port operation performance amid the Red Sea crisis. Two dominant resilience enhancement paths are identified, among which the dual-driven path of adaptation and transformation is the most effective. Accordingly, suggestions are proposed to strengthen Fujian's export maritime supply chain resilience from three aspects: the government establishes classified response and collaborative early-warning mechanisms, shipping enterprises optimize dynamic adaptation and green transformation strategies, and port operators improve digital construction and collaborative operation efficiency.