摘要：

基于新发展理念与区域特点构建评价指标体系，运用空间计量与Markov链方法，考察2011—2023年福建省及两大协同区经济高质量发展的时空演变特征。研究发现：全省及两大协同区均存在显著β收敛趋势与正向空间溢出效应，但长期演进呈现“俱乐部收敛”与路径依赖，良好的邻近环境有助于打破低水平锁定；收敛路径具有显著异质性，闽西南协同区内部收敛速度快于闽东北协同区，至2023年形成内部差距的“交叉倒挂”，表明区域协调主要矛盾已转向闽东北内部发展不平衡。建议实施差异化协调策略，构建“俱乐部跃迁”支持体系，营造正向邻里效应。

Abstract：

Based on the new development philosophy and regional characteristics, this paper constructs an evaluation index system and examines the spatiotemporal evolution of high-quality economic development in Fujian Province and its two major collaborative regions from 2011 to 2023, utilizing spatial econometric models and Markov chain methods. The results show that: A significant absolute β-convergence trend and positive spatial spillover effects are observed across the province and within the two collaborative regions. However, the long-term evolution exhibits characteristics of “club convergence” and path dependence, where a favorable spatial neighborhood significantly facilitates breaking the “low-level lock-in”. There is significant heterogeneity in convergence paths. The internal convergence speed of the Southwest Fujian Collaborative Region is notably faster than that of the Northeast Fujian Collaborative Region. By 2023, a “cross-inversion” of internal disparities had emerged, signaling that the principal contradiction in regional coordination has shifted towards the developmental imbalance within Northeast Fujian. Main suggestions are as follows: implementing differentiated coordination strategies, constructing a support system for “club leapfrogging”, and fostering positive spatial neighborhood effects.